Asian Development Outlook September 2025: Growth Slows as a New Global Trade Environment Takes Shape

This edition finds that economic growth in Asia and the Pacific will slow slightly as a new global trade environment emerges. The region’s outlook will be shaped by offsetting factors. Higher US tariffs and elevated trade policy uncertainty will weigh on economic activity. Robust domestic demand, electronics and AI-driven exports, and policy support will help cushion external headwinds. Inflation will continue to moderate, as energy and food prices ease further. Downside risks stem from renewed tariff hikes, geopolitical tensions, further deterioration in the PRC’s property market, and financial market volatility. Policymakers should intensify efforts to bolster resilience, relying on sound macroeconomic policies and fostering regional cooperation and integration.