An Actuarial Model for Costing Universal Health Coverage in Armenia

The Asian Development Bank seeks to assist the Government of Armenia in undertaking major health financing reforms to achieve universal health coverage (UHC) within the context of the Sustainable Development Goals and improving health system performance. Critical to the development, evaluation and implementation of such UHC policies is the need for accurate information of the expenditure implications and revenue needs of alternative policy choices. This report provides guidance in the design, construction, calibration, evaluation, implementation, use, and refinement of a UHC model to assess the expenditure impacts and the revenue requirements to finance alternative universal health insurance (UHI) policies. It develops an actuarial UHC costing model that relies on the most recent and complete health insurance claims data to estimate expenditures and revenue needs for achieving UHC. The report focuses on the development and operationalization of this actuarial model as a tool for assessing the health financing and fiscal implications of Armenia’s key UHI policy decisions.